Polls · Texas Senate
University of Texas /Texas Politics Project , 5 October 2026
University of Texas /Texas Politics Project has James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by 3 points in Texas Senate, 50% to 47%. Since its previous poll (13 August 2026): James Talarico +8 (42 → 50), Ken Paxton +8 (39 → 47).
| Race | Texas Senate |
|---|---|
| Fieldwork | 25 September 2026 – 5 October 2026 |
| Stage | General election |
| Sample | 861 (likely voters) |
| Paid for by | Texas Politics Project |
| Method | – |
| Release | release |
| In our average | Yes |
Main
 James Talarico D |
50 | |
 Ken Paxton R |
47 | |
| Other | 3 |
Margin on the decided vote: D+3.0; after our adjustments D+2.6, which includes a move of 0.5 points to the Democrats with the national trend since the poll (↻).
Against the other polls
Against the median of the 10 other polls of this race taken within a week of it: James Talarico 50% against 47.1%; Ken Paxton 47% against 45%.
University of Texas /Texas Politics Project's previous poll of this race, 13 August 2026 →
Photo credits
- James Talarico: Photo: Antonioaesparza, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:James_Talarico_Press_Conference_(cropped).jpg)
- Ken Paxton: Photo: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:K_Paxton.jpg)