How well do you know the polls?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 98 for 4 November 2026.
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1Which party won the most votes at Germany's 2017 election?
CDU/CSU with 32.9%, ahead of SPD on 20.5%. See the page
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2At Germany's 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
SPD: 15.2% in the final polls, 16.4% on the day. See the page
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3To the nearest point, what share of the vote did M5S win at Italy's 2018 election?
32.7%. See the page
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4Which party won the most votes at Spain's 2016 election?
PP with 32.6%, ahead of PSOE on 22.6%. See the page
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5At Italy's 2022 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
M5S: 13.5% in the final polls, 15.4% on the day. See the page
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6Who leads the polls in the Netherlands?
PRO on 18.8% in our average, ahead of PVV on 12.6%. See the page
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7At Poland's 2023 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
PiS: 36.8% in the final polls, 35.4% on the day. See the page
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8How many seats does our forecast give PRO in the Tweede Kamer in the Netherlands?
28 in our projection, 48 short of a majority. See the page
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9At France's 2024 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
RN + allies: 36.1% in the final polls, 33.2% on the day. See the page
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10In the United States, what chance does our forecast give for “Democratic Senate control”?
83%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.