How well do you know the polls?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 93 for 4 November 2026.
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1In France, what chance does our forecast give for “Le Pen v Mélenchon in round two”?
74%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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2In Australia, whose poll average has moved most in the last week of polling?
Labor: down 0.6 points, now 26.3%. See the page
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3At Poland's 2023 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
PiS: 36.8% in the final polls, 35.4% on the day. See the page
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4In Italy, what chance does our forecast give for “Centre-left majority”?
60%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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5At the Netherlands' 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.4 points per party, over 3 final polls. See the page
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6At which election since 2000 were the Netherlands' final polls furthest out?
2002: 2.4 points out per party on average. See the page
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7Which party has gained most in the polls since Spain's last election (23 July 2023)?
Vox: 12.4% then, 19.0% in our average now (+6.6 points). See the page
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8Which party won the most votes at the United Kingdom's 2017 election?
Con with 43.4%, ahead of Lab on 41.0%. See the page
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9To the nearest point, what share of the vote did LR win at France's 2007 election?
31.2%. See the page
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10Who leads the polls in Canada?
Liberal on 46.2% in our average, ahead of Conservative on 30.7%. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.