How well do you know the polls?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 56 for 4 November 2026.
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1At the Netherlands' 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
VVD: 12.0% in the final polls, 14.2% on the day. See the page
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2In Canada, what chance does our forecast give for “NDP reaches 12 seats (party status)”?
36%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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3Which party won the most votes at Germany's 2013 election?
CDU/CSU with 41.5%, ahead of SPD on 25.7%. See the page
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4Which party won the most votes at the Netherlands' 2017 election?
VVD with 21.3%, ahead of PRO on 14.8%. See the page
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5To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Liberal win at Canada's 2025 election?
43.8%. See the page
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6At which election since 2000 were the United States' final polls furthest out?
2016: 2.8 points out per party on average. See the page
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7To the nearest point, what share of the vote did PiS win at Poland's 2015 election?
37.6%. See the page
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8At Poland's 2023 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
PiS: 36.8% in the final polls, 35.4% on the day. See the page
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9How many seats does our forecast give Left (NFP and other left) in the Assemblée nationale in France?
282 in our projection, 7 short of a majority. See the page
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10How many seats does our forecast give AfD in the Bundestag in Germany?
197 in our projection, 119 short of a majority. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.