How well do you know the polls in Italy?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 99 for 4 November 2026.
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1How many seats does our forecast give Centre-left in the Camera dei Deputati in Italy?
223 in our projection, a majority (201 needed). See the page
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2In Italy, what chance does our forecast give for “Centre-left majority in both chambers”?
60%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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3At Italy's 2022 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.9 points per party, over 21 final polls. See the page
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4To the nearest point, what share of the vote did M5S win at Italy's 2018 election?
32.7%. See the page
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5To the nearest point, what share of the vote did FI win at Italy's 2008 election?
37.4%. See the page
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6Which party has gained most in the polls since Italy's last election (25 September 2022)?
AVS: 3.6% then, 6.3% in our average now (+2.6 points). See the page
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7At Italy's 2022 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
Lega: 12.0% in the final polls, 8.8% on the day. See the page
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8How many seats does our forecast give Centre-right in the Camera dei Deputati in Italy?
143 in our projection. See the page
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9At Italy's 2022 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
M5S: 13.5% in the final polls, 15.4% on the day. See the page
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10At which election since 2000 were Italy's final polls furthest out?
2013: 5.6 points out per party on average. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.