How well do you know the polls in Italy?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 81 for 4 November 2026.
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1At which election since 2000 were Italy's final polls furthest out?
2013: 5.6 points out per party on average. See the page
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2Which party has lost most support since Italy's last election (25 September 2022)?
Lega: 8.8% then, 5.7% in our average now (−3.1 points). See the page
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3At Italy's 2022 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
Lega: 12.0% in the final polls, 8.8% on the day. See the page
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4Who leads the polls in Italy?
FdI on 27.7% in our average, ahead of PD on 20.3%. See the page
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5In Italy, what chance does our forecast give for “Lega clears 3%”?
88%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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6At Italy's 2022 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
M5S: 13.5% in the final polls, 15.4% on the day. See the page
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7At which election since 2000 were Italy's final polls closest to the result?
2008: 1.5 points out per party on average. See the page
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8How many seats does our forecast give Centre-left in the Camera dei Deputati in Italy?
223 in our projection, a majority (201 needed). See the page
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9Which party won the most votes at Italy's 2013 election?
M5S with 25.6%, ahead of PD on 25.4%. See the page
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10To the nearest point, what share of the vote did FI win at Italy's 2008 election?
37.4%. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.