How well do you know the polls in Italy?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 26 for 3 November 2026.
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1In Italy, what chance does our forecast give for “Centre-left majority”?
60%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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2At Italy's 2022 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
Lega: 12.0% in the final polls, 8.8% on the day. See the page
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3To the nearest point, what share of the vote did FI win at Italy's 2008 election?
37.4%. See the page
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4Who leads the polls in Italy?
FdI on 27.7% in our average, ahead of PD on 20.3%. See the page
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5In Italy, what chance does our forecast give for “Centre-left majority in both chambers”?
60%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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6At Italy's 2022 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.9 points per party, over 21 final polls. See the page
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7Which party won the most votes at Italy's 2018 election?
M5S with 32.7%, ahead of PD on 18.8%. See the page
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8To the nearest point, what share of the vote did M5S win at Italy's 2018 election?
32.7%. See the page
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9Which party has lost most support since Italy's last election (25 September 2022)?
Lega: 8.8% then, 5.7% in our average now (−3.1 points). See the page
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10At Italy's 2022 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
M5S: 13.5% in the final polls, 15.4% on the day. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.