How well do you know the polls in France?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 97 for 4 November 2026.
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1How many seats does our forecast give Left (NFP and other left) in the Assemblée nationale in France?
284 in our projection, 5 short of a majority. See the page
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2At which election since 2000 were France's final polls furthest out?
2022: 2.3 points out per party on average. See the page
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3To the nearest point, what share of the vote did PS win at France's 2012 election?
28.6%. See the page
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4At which election since 2000 were France's final polls closest to the result?
2017: 0.7 points out per party on average. See the page
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5In France, what chance does our forecast give for “Philippe wins”?
6%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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6At France's 2024 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.0 point per party, over 7 final polls. See the page
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7To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Ensemble win at France's 2017 election?
24.0%. See the page
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8Who leads the polls in France?
Le Pen on 34.4% in our average, ahead of Mélenchon on 16.9%. See the page
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9How many seats does our forecast give RN and allies in the Assemblée nationale in France?
123 in our projection. See the page
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10At France's 2024 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
RN + allies: 36.1% in the final polls, 33.2% on the day. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.