How well do you know the polls in Germany?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 20 for 3 November 2026.
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1In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “FDP clears 5%”?
24%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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2To the nearest point, what share of the vote did CDU/CSU win at Germany's 2013 election?
41.5%. See the page
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3Which pollster's final polls have been closest to the result in Germany?
Wahlkreisprognose: 0.8 points out per party on average over 2 elections, the best of 4. See the page
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4Which party won the most votes at Germany's 2025 election?
CDU/CSU with 28.5%, ahead of AfD on 20.8%. See the page
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5To the nearest point, what share of the vote did CDU/CSU win at Germany's 2025 election?
28.5%. See the page
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6In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens majority”?
97%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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7Which party won the most votes at Germany's 2017 election?
CDU/CSU with 32.9%, ahead of SPD on 20.5%. See the page
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8At Germany's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.2 points per party, over 13 final polls. See the page
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9Who leads the polls in Germany?
AfD on 27.4% in our average, ahead of CDU/CSU on 20.5%. See the page
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10At which election since 2000 were Germany's final polls closest to the result?
2021: 0.7 points out per party on average. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.