How well do you know the polls in Canada?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 66 for 4 November 2026.
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1In Canada, what chance does our forecast give for “NDP reaches 12 seats (party status)”?
36%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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2Who leads the polls in Canada?
Liberal on 46.2% in our average, ahead of Conservative on 30.7%. See the page
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3At Canada's 2025 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
NDP: 8.5% in the final polls, 6.3% on the day. See the page
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4To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Liberal win at Canada's 2025 election?
43.8%. See the page
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5Which party has lost most support since Canada's last election (28 April 2025)?
Conservative: 41.3% then, 30.7% in our average now (−10.6 points). See the page
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6Which party won the most votes at Canada's 2019 election?
Conservative with 34.3%, ahead of Liberal on 33.1%. See the page
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7At Canada's 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
Conservative: 38.9% in the final polls, 41.3% on the day. See the page
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8At which election since 2000 were Canada's final polls furthest out?
2004: 2.0 points out per party on average. See the page
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9How many seats does our forecast give Conservative in the House of Commons in Canada?
73 in our projection. See the page
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10At Canada's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.5 points per party, over 13 final polls. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.