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Move the polls → Every tool →Where the polls stood 14 months before each of the last two general elections, and what happened next. The biggest move from this point: Lega in 2022, −11.7 points between the polls and the result.
The average of the polls around the same point in each cycle (each pollster counted once), the line to polling day, and the result. The dashed line is this point.
Lega led by 0.2. FdI won the vote instead, by 6.9.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FdI | 20.3 | 26.0 | +5.7 |
| Lega | 20.5 | 8.8 | −11.7 |
| PD | 19.5 | 19.0 | −0.5 |
| M5S | 15.7 | 15.4 | −0.3 |
| FI | 7.3 | 8.1 | +0.8 |
| Action, Italia Viva | 2.3 | 7.8 | +5.5 |
PD led by 1.6. M5S won the vote instead, by 13.9.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| M5S | 28.6 | 32.7 | +4.1 |
| PD | 30.2 | 18.8 | −11.4 |
| Lega | 12.8 | 17.4 | +4.6 |
| FI | 12.4 | 14.0 | +1.6 |
| FdI | 4.4 | 4.3 | −0.1 |
| Verdi e Sinistra | 3.5 | 3.4 | −0.1 |
Today's average, then each party moved by as much as it did between this point and polling day in each past cycle. Where a party did not stand, or polled under another name we cannot match, the cell is blank.
| Party | Today | As in 2022 | As in 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|
| FdI | 27.6 | 33.3 | 27.5 |
| PD | 20.4 | 19.9 | 9.0 |
| M5S | 12.7 | 12.4 | 16.8 |
| FI | 7.1 | 7.9 | 8.7 |
| FN | 6.9 | ||
| Verdi e Sinistra | 6.3 | 7.5 | 6.2 |
| Lega | 5.7 | 0.0 | 10.3 |
| Azione | 3.1 |
FdI stays ahead in every one. A party's move in one cycle belongs to that campaign; this shows the size of change that has happened from here, not a forecast. Our forecast →
For each past election we take every national voting-intention poll published in the fortnight either side of the same point (three weeks, or five where polls were sparse), average each pollster's polls, then average the pollsters. Verdi e Sinistra's line is LeU in 2018.
Polls: Opinion polling for the 2018 Italian general election, Opinion polling for the 2022 Italian general election, Wikipedia, under CC BY-SA 4.0. Results: the national electoral authorities. Today: our poll average, updated with every poll.
The latest polls → · How accurate the pollsters have been → · What if the polls are wrong? →
