Italy General electionby 22 Dec 2027in 415 days Centre-left majority 61% No majority in the Camera 0% Calendar Track record Research
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New electoral law Our forecast now uses Italy's new electoral law, approved on 8 October 2026: no single-member seats, and 70 extra deputies and 35 extra senators for a coalition that comes first with 42% of the vote. The maps show which coalition leads in each former collegio; those are no longer seats. What changed →
Italy · Seats changing hands

76 seats change hands since 2022, Centre-left up 76

Every seat our projection gives to a different party from the one that won it in 2022. It moves with every poll; the chance is how often the new winner takes the seat in our simulations.

Who takes seats from whom

  1. Centre-leftfrom Centre-right 65 seats
  2. Centre-leftfrom M5S 10 seats
  3. Centre-leftfrom Others 1 seat

Every seat

  1. Messina (Sicilia 2 - U06)SIC2 Centre-left from Others 48% chance
  2. Pescara (Abruzzo - U02)ABR Centre-left from Centre-right 51% chance
  3. Acireale (Sicilia 2 - U03)SIC2 Centre-left from Centre-right 52% chance
  4. Massa (Toscana - U02)TOS Centre-left from Centre-right 52% chance
  5. Perugia (Umbria - U02)UMB Centre-left from Centre-right 53% chance
  6. Chieti (Abruzzo - U01)ABR Centre-left from Centre-right 54% chance
  7. La Spezia (Liguria - U04)LIG Centre-left from Centre-right 55% chance
  8. Eboli (Campania 2 - U07)CAM2 Centre-left from Centre-right 55% chance
  9. Pesaro (Marche - U04)MAR Centre-left from Centre-right 57% chance
  10. Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto (Sicilia 2 - U05)SIC2 Centre-left from Centre-right 58% chance
  11. Galatina (Puglia - U10)PUG Centre-left from Centre-right 65% chance
  12. Trieste (Friuli-Venezia Giulia - U03)FVG Centre-left from Centre-right 65% chance
  13. Trento (Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol - U01)TAA Centre-left from Centre-right 65% chance
  14. Cologno Monzese (Lombardia 1 - U03)LOM1 Centre-left from Centre-right 66% chance
  15. Bagheria (Sicilia 1 - U03)SIC1 Centre-left from Centre-right 67% chance
  16. Benevento (Campania 2 - U03)CAM2 Centre-left from Centre-right 68% chance
  17. Roma – Municipio XIV (Lazio 1 - U07)LAZ1 Centre-left from Centre-right 70% chance
  18. Roma – Municipio V (Lazio 1 - U03)LAZ1 Centre-left from Centre-right 71% chance
  19. Parma (Emilia-Romagna - U02)EMR Centre-left from Centre-right 71% chance
  20. Altamura (Puglia - U06)PUG Centre-left from Centre-right 72% chance
  21. Moncalieri (Piemonte 1 - U05)PIE1 Centre-left from Centre-right 72% chance
  22. Brindisi (Puglia - U07)PUG Centre-left from Centre-right 73% chance
  23. Sesto San Giovanni (Lombardia 1 - U06)LOM1 Centre-left from Centre-right 73% chance
  24. Rimini (Emilia-Romagna - U11)EMR Centre-left from Centre-right 76% chance
  25. Lecce (Puglia - U09)PUG Centre-left from Centre-right 77% chance
  26. Arezzo (Toscana - U09)TOS Centre-left from Centre-right 77% chance
  27. Carbonia (Sardegna - U02)SAR Centre-left from Centre-right 78% chance
  28. Campobasso (Molise - U01)MOL Centre-left from Centre-right 79% chance
  29. Ragusa (Sicilia 2 - U01)SIC2 Centre-left from Centre-right 80% chance
  30. Agrigento (Sicilia 1 - U05)SIC1 Centre-left from Centre-right 81% chance
  31. Taranto (Puglia - U08)PUG Centre-left from Centre-right 81% chance
  32. Gela (Sicilia 1 - U04)SIC1 Centre-left from Centre-right 82% chance
  33. Catania (Sicilia 2 - U02)SIC2 Centre-left from Centre-right 83% chance
  34. Siracusa (Sicilia 2 - U04)SIC2 Centre-left from Centre-right 83% chance
  35. Palermo – Resuttana (Sicilia 1 - U02)SIC1 Centre-left from Centre-right 83% chance
  36. Catanzaro (Calabria - U03)CAL Centre-left from Centre-right 84% chance
  37. Nuoro (Sardegna - U03)SAR Centre-left from Centre-right 85% chance
  38. Aversa (Campania 2 - U01)CAM2 Centre-left from Centre-right 85% chance
  39. Roma – Municipio X (Lazio 1 - U05)LAZ1 Centre-left from Centre-right 85% chance
  40. Marsala (Sicilia 1 - U06)SIC1 Centre-left from Centre-right 85% chance
  41. Andria (Puglia - U03)PUG Centre-left from Centre-right 86% chance
  42. Cerignola (Puglia - U02)PUG Centre-left from Centre-right 86% chance
  43. Sassari (Sardegna - U04)SAR Centre-left from Centre-right 87% chance
  44. Molfetta (Puglia - U04)PUG Centre-left from Centre-right 87% chance
  45. Grosseto (Toscana - U01)TOS Centre-left from Centre-right 87% chance
  46. Scafati (Campania 2 - U05)CAM2 Centre-left from Centre-right 87% chance
  47. Corigliano-Rossano (Calabria - U01)CAL Centre-left from Centre-right 88% chance
  48. Forlì (Emilia-Romagna - U10)EMR Centre-left from Centre-right 88% chance
  49. Cosenza (Calabria - U02)CAL Centre-left from M5S 89% chance
  50. Potenza (Basilicata - U01)BAS Centre-left from Centre-right 89% chance
  51. Prato (Toscana - U06)TOS Centre-left from Centre-right 89% chance
  52. Collegno (Piemonte 1 - U03)PIE1 Centre-left from Centre-right 90% chance
  53. Ancona (Marche - U03)MAR Centre-left from Centre-right 92% chance
  54. Foggia (Puglia - U01)PUG Centre-left from M5S 92% chance
  55. Caserta (Campania 2 - U02)CAM2 Centre-left from Centre-right 92% chance
  56. Roma – Municipio XI (Lazio 1 - U06)LAZ1 Centre-left from Centre-right 93% chance
  57. Salerno (Campania 2 - U06)CAM2 Centre-left from Centre-right 94% chance
  58. Pisa (Toscana - U04)TOS Centre-left from Centre-right 95% chance
  59. Somma Vesuviana (Campania 1 - U06)CAM1 Centre-left from M5S 95% chance
  60. Bari (Puglia - U05)PUG Centre-left from Centre-right 95% chance
  61. Torre del Greco (Campania 1 - U07)CAM1 Centre-left from M5S 95% chance
  62. Cagliari (Sardegna - U01)SAR Centre-left from Centre-right 95% chance
  63. Palermo – Sette Cannoli (Sicilia 1 - U01)SIC1 Centre-left from M5S 96% chance
  64. Giugliano in Campania (Campania 1 - U01)CAM1 Centre-left from M5S 96% chance
  65. Ravenna (Emilia-Romagna - U08)EMR Centre-left from Centre-right 97% chance
  66. Genova – Ponente (Liguria - U02)LIG Centre-left from Centre-right 97% chance
  67. Modena (Emilia-Romagna - U04)EMR Centre-left from Centre-right 98% chance
  68. Roma – Municipio III (Lazio 1 - U02)LAZ1 Centre-left from Centre-right 98% chance
  69. Livorno (Toscana - U05)TOS Centre-left from Centre-right 98% chance
  70. Casoria (Campania 1 - U04)CAM1 Centre-left from M5S 98% chance
  71. Milano – Bande Nere (Lombardia 1 - U08)LOM1 Centre-left from Centre-right 98% chance
  72. Avellino (Campania 2 - U04)CAM2 Centre-left from Centre-right 99% chance
  73. Torino – San Paolo (Piemonte 1 - U02)PIE1 Centre-left from Centre-right 99% chance
  74. Acerra (Campania 1 - U05)CAM1 Centre-left from M5S over 99% chance
  75. Napoli – Fuorigrotta (Campania 1 - U02)CAM1 Centre-left from M5S over 99% chance
  76. Napoli – San Carlo all'Arena (Campania 1 - U03)CAM1 Centre-left from M5S over 99% chance

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