Rafelguaraf: PSOE would keep its majority
Rafelguaraf (Valencia/València, 2,360 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- 76%PSOE majority
- 1,545valid votes in 2023 (81% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 24% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Rafelguaraf
Rafelguaraf is a municipality in the province of Valencia/València with 2,360 inhabitants, the 123rd largest of its 266 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PSOE came first with 57.6% of the vote and 7 seats, an absolute majority; PP was second with 3. 80.7% of the 1,915 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps PSOE on 6 seats, a majority, which it holds in 76% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PSOEPSOE 57.6% → 52.0% 7 → 6 councillors
- PPPP 28.2% → 26.8% 3 → 3 councillors
- VOXVox 13.0% → 20.1% 1 → 2 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,545 valid votes including 18 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.