España Próximas elecciones29 nov 2026en 27 días PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendario Historial Investigación

Casarrubios del Monte: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Casarrubios del Monte (Toledo, 6,441 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE−1
6 councillors (2023: 7) · 43.7% of the vote (2023: 48.4%) Majority 34%
PP±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 25.9% of the vote (2023: 27.1%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
3 councillors (2023: 2) · 24.1% of the vote (2023: 16.0%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 66% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 48.4% → 43.7% 7 → 6 councillors
  2. PPPP 27.1% → 25.9% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. VOXVox 16.0% → 24.1% 2 → 3 councillors
  4. G.I.C.CALIPO-FADOLocal lists 3.0% → 3.1% 0 → 0 councillors
  5. UNIDAS - IU - PODEMOSSumar, Podemos and allies 4.5% → 2.3% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,022 valid votes including 30 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Casarrubios del Monte in size, in Toledo

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