Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

La Pobla de Montornès: ERC - AM would keep its majority

La Pobla de Montornès (Tarragona, 3,101 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

ERC - AM+1
7 councillors (2023: 6) · 55.4% of the vote (2023: 46.1%) Majority 96%
AMPM-PSC-CP−1
3 councillors (2023: 4) · 26.4% of the vote (2023: 31.7%) Majority 0%
PP±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 7.5% of the vote (2023: 9.0%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 4% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. ERC - AMERC 46.1% → 55.4% 6 → 7 councillors
  2. AMPM-PSC-CPPSOE 31.7% → 26.4% 4 → 3 councillors
  3. PPPP 9.0% → 7.5% 1 → 1 councillors
  4. VALENTSLocal lists 7.6% → 7.4% 0 → 0 councillors
  5. ECPPM-CSumar, Podemos and allies 4.2% → 1.9% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,224 valid votes including 17 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near La Pobla de Montornès in size, in Tarragona

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