Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Hermigua: ASG would keep its majority

Hermigua (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 1,795 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

ASG±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 48.1% of the vote (2023: 45.8%) Majority 77%
NC-FAC±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 31.9% of the vote (2023: 30.4%) Majority 0%
CCA±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 13.8% of the vote (2023: 16.7%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 23% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. ASGLocal lists 45.8% → 48.1% 5 → 5 councillors
  2. NC-FACLocal lists 30.4% → 31.9% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. CCACoalición Canaria 16.7% → 13.8% 1 → 1 councillors
  4. PPPP 4.8% → 3.9% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,178 valid votes including 27 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Hermigua in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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