España Próximas elecciones29 nov 2026en 27 días PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendario Historial Investigación

El Sauzal: no list would have a majority, CCA largest

El Sauzal (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 9,005 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

CCA−1
6 councillors (2023: 7) · 43.2% of the vote (2023: 48.9%) Majority 35%
AISA-NC±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 32.8% of the vote (2023: 29.2%) Majority 0%
PSOE±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 8.0% of the vote (2023: 10.1%) Majority 0%
PP±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 7.5% of the vote (2023: 7.9%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 7.2% of the vote (2023: 2.5%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 65% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. CCACoalición Canaria 48.9% → 43.2% 7 → 6 councillors
  2. AISA-NCLocal lists 29.2% → 32.8% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. PSOEPSOE 10.1% → 8.0% 1 → 1 councillors
  4. PPPP 7.9% → 7.5% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. VOXVox 2.5% → 7.2% 0 → 1 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 5,043 valid votes including 66 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near El Sauzal in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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