Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

El Paso: CCA would keep its majority

El Paso (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 7,901 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

CCA±0
10 councillors (2023: 10) · 66.2% of the vote (2023: 70.4%) Majority over 99%
PP+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 14.5% of the vote (2023: 13.6%) Majority 0%
PSOE−1
1 councillors (2023: 2) · 12.5% of the vote (2023: 13.8%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. CCACoalición Canaria 70.4% → 66.2% 10 → 10 councillors
  2. PPPP 13.6% → 14.5% 1 → 2 councillors
  3. PSOEPSOE 13.8% → 12.5% 2 → 1 councillors
  4. VOXVox 1.1% → 5.6% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 4,315 valid votes including 51 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near El Paso in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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