Lumbier: AIL would keep its majority
Lumbier (Navarra, 1,297 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 9councillors, 5 for a majority
- 94%AIL majority
- 911valid votes in 2023 (80% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Lumbier
Lumbier is a municipality in the province of Navarra with 1,297 inhabitants, the 74th largest of its 234 municipalities. Its council has 9 seats, and 5 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 AIL came first with 58.1% of the vote and 6 seats, an absolute majority; EH BILDU was second with 3. 79.6% of the 1,144 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps AIL on 5 seats, a majority, which it holds in 94% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- AILLocal lists 58.1% → 57.5% 6 → 5 councillors
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 38.6% → 39.2% 3 → 4 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 911 valid votes including 30 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.