Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Casabermeja: no list would have a majority, CON ANDALUCÍA largest

Casabermeja (Málaga, 3,813 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

CON ANDALUCÍA±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 38.3% of the vote (2023: 40.1%) Majority 10%
PSOE-A±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 34.9% of the vote (2023: 34.9%) Majority 2%
PP±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 21.6% of the vote (2023: 20.2%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 88% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. CON ANDALUCÍASumar, Podemos and allies 40.1% → 38.3% 5 → 5 councillors
  2. PSOE-APSOE 34.9% → 34.9% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. PPPP 20.2% → 21.6% 2 → 2 councillors
  4. CASABERMEJA EN POSITIVOLocal lists 3.2% → 3.7% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,120 valid votes including 34 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Casabermeja in size, in Málaga

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