Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

San Martín de la Vega: PSOE would keep its majority

San Martín de la Vega (Madrid, 19,927 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE−2
10 councillors (2023: 12) · 59.1% of the vote (2023: 61.9%) Majority 98%
PP±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 22.1% of the vote (2023: 22.3%) Majority 0%
VOX+2
3 councillors (2023: 1) · 16.5% of the vote (2023: 9.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 2% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 61.9% → 59.1% 12 → 10 councillors
  2. PPPP 22.3% → 22.1% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. VOXVox 9.6% → 16.5% 1 → 3 councillors
  4. I.U.Sumar, Podemos and allies 3.0% → 1.0% 0 → 0 councillors
  5. PODEMOS-AVSumar, Podemos and allies 2.1% → 0.1% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 8,562 valid votes including 101 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near San Martín de la Vega in size, in Madrid

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