Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Camarma de Esteruelas: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Camarma de Esteruelas (Madrid, 7,595 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 34.6% of the vote (2023: 36.1%) Majority 2%
PSOE−1
4 councillors (2023: 5) · 28.0% of the vote (2023: 32.1%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
3 councillors (2023: 2) · 23.7% of the vote (2023: 15.8%) Majority 0%
ACDE±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 8.3% of the vote (2023: 8.2%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 98% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Camarma de Esteruelas

Camarma de Esteruelas is a municipality in the province of Madrid with 7,595 inhabitants, the 67th largest of its 179 municipalities. Its council has 13 seats, and 7 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PP came first with 36.1% of the vote and 5 seats; PSOE was second with 5. 67.5% of the 5,479 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PP would be largest on 5 of 13.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 36.1% → 34.6% 5 → 5 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 32.1% → 28.0% 5 → 4 councillors
  3. VOXVox 15.8% → 23.7% 2 → 3 councillors
  4. ACDELocal lists 8.2% → 8.3% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. PODEMOS-IU-AVSumar, Podemos and allies 5.9% → 3.5% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,699 valid votes including 68 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Camarma de Esteruelas in size, in Madrid

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