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La Fuliola: IFB-AM would win a majority

La Fuliola (Lleida, 1,238 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

IFB-AM+1
5 councillors (2023: 4) · 49.7% of the vote (2023: 41.4%) Majority 59%
CM−1
4 councillors (2023: 5) · 46.4% of the vote (2023: 54.8%) Majority 41%

The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About La Fuliola

La Fuliola is a municipality in the province of Lleida with 1,238 inhabitants, the 54th largest of its 231 municipalities. Its council has 9 seats, and 5 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 CM came first with 54.8% of the vote and 5 seats, an absolute majority; IFB-AM was second with 4. 65.4% of the 869 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps IFB-AM on 5 seats, a majority, which it holds in 59% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. IFB-AMERC 41.4% → 49.7% 4 → 5 councillors
  2. CMJunts 54.8% → 46.4% 5 → 4 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 568 valid votes including 22 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near La Fuliola in size, in Lleida

Every municipality in Lleida → · All of Spain →