Bellcaire d'Urgell: ERC - AM would keep its majority
Bellcaire d'Urgell (Lleida, 1,229 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 9councillors, 5 for a majority
- 98%ERC - AM majority
- 779valid votes in 2023 (81% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Bellcaire d'Urgell
Bellcaire d'Urgell is a municipality in the province of Lleida with 1,229 inhabitants, the 55th largest of its 231 municipalities. Its council has 9 seats, and 5 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 ERC - AM came first with 53% of the vote and 5 seats, an absolute majority; CM was second with 4. 81.4% of the 957 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps ERC - AM on 6 seats, a majority, which it holds in 98% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- ERC - AMERC 53.0% → 61.2% 5 → 6 councillors
- CMJunts 44.5% → 36.3% 4 → 3 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 779 valid votes including 19 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.