Bellaguarda: CM would keep its majority
Bellaguarda (Lleida, 288 inhabitants) elects 7 councillors on 23 May 2027; 4 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 7councillors, 4 for a majority
- 91%CM majority
- 185valid votes in 2023 (74% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (4 of 7). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Bellaguarda
Bellaguarda is a municipality in the province of Lleida with 288 inhabitants, the 149th largest of its 231 municipalities. Its council has 7 seats, and 4 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 CM came first with 65.4% of the vote and 5 seats, an absolute majority; IXB-AM was second with 2. 74% of the 250 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps CM on 4 seats, a majority, which it holds in 91% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- CMJunts 65.4% → 57.6% 5 → 4 councillors
- IXB-AMERC 31.4% → 39.1% 2 → 3 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 185 valid votes including 6 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.