Ardón: UPL would keep its majority
Ardón (León, 569 inhabitants) elects 7 councillors on 23 May 2027; 4 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 7councillors, 4 for a majority
- 62%UPL majority
- 402valid votes in 2023 (82% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (4 of 7). No list with a majority in 38% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Ardón
Ardón is a municipality in the province of León with 569 inhabitants, the 98th largest of its 211 municipalities. Its council has 7 seats, and 4 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 UPL came first with 43.8% of the vote and 4 seats, an absolute majority; PP was second with 2. 81.5% of the 493 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps UPL on 4 seats, a majority, which it holds in 62% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- UPLLocal lists 43.8% → 48.1% 4 → 4 councillors
- PPPP 32.3% → 33.3% 2 → 2 councillors
- ALANTRE VERDES EQUOSumar, Podemos and allies 18.7% → 15.9% 1 → 1 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 3.2% → 0.8% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 402 valid votes including 8 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.