Arjonilla: CS would keep its majority
Arjonilla (Jaén, 3,535 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- 58%CS majority
- 2,307valid votes in 2023 (77% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
CS±0
6
councillors (2023: 6) · 46.4% of the vote (2023: 44.0%)
Majority 58%
P.AR.±0
3
councillors (2023: 3) · 28.8% of the vote (2023: 27.3%)
Majority 0%
PSOE±0
2
councillors (2023: 2) · 18.9% of the vote (2023: 21.8%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 42% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- CSCiudadanos 44.0% → 46.4% 6 → 6 councillors
- P.AR.Local lists 27.3% → 28.8% 3 → 3 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 21.8% → 18.9% 2 → 2 councillors
- PPPP 6.0% → 5.1% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,307 valid votes including 19 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.