Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Arroyo de la Luz: PSOE would keep its majority

Arroyo de la Luz (Cáceres, 5,596 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE−1
8 councillors (2023: 9) · 58.3% of the vote (2023: 58.7%) Majority over 99%
SOMOS CC+1
3 councillors (2023: 2) · 20.3% of the vote (2023: 18.1%) Majority 0%
PP±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 14.4% of the vote (2023: 14.3%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in under 1% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 58.7% → 58.3% 9 → 8 councillors
  2. SOMOS CCLocal lists 18.1% → 20.3% 2 → 3 councillors
  3. PPPP 14.3% → 14.4% 2 → 2 councillors
  4. IU-PODEMOS-AV -UNIDASSumar, Podemos and allies 6.0% → 4.0% 0 → 0 councillors
  5. J.U.E.X.Local lists 1.6% → 1.8% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,573 valid votes including 45 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Arroyo de la Luz in size, in Cáceres

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