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Spain · Municipal elections 2027 · Burgos

Aranda de Duero: no list would have a majority, SA largest

Aranda de Duero (Burgos, 33,172 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

SA±0
6 councillors (2023: 6) · 28.6% of the vote (2023: 27.8%) Majority 0%
PP±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 21.4% of the vote (2023: 22.5%) Majority 0%
PSOE−1
4 councillors (2023: 5) · 18.9% of the vote (2023: 22.3%) Majority 0%
VOX+2
4 councillors (2023: 2) · 16.5% of the vote (2023: 10.1%) Majority 0%
PODEMOS-IU−1
1 councillors (2023: 2) · 8.0% of the vote (2023: 10.9%) Majority 0%
CS±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.2% of the vote (2023: 5.0%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Aranda de Duero

Aranda de Duero is a municipality in the province of Burgos with 33,172 inhabitants, the 3rd largest of its 367 municipalities. Its council has 21 seats, and 11 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 SA came first with 27.8% of the vote and 6 seats; PP was second with 5. 60.5% of the 24,501 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: SA would be largest on 6 of 21.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. SALocal lists 27.8% → 28.6% 6 → 6 councillors
  2. PPPP 22.5% → 21.4% 5 → 5 councillors
  3. PSOEPSOE 22.3% → 18.9% 5 → 4 councillors
  4. VOXVox 10.1% → 16.5% 2 → 4 councillors
  5. PODEMOS-IUSumar, Podemos and allies 10.9% → 8.0% 2 → 1 councillors
  6. CSCiudadanos 5.0% → 5.2% 1 → 1 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 14,814 valid votes including 211 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Aranda de Duero in size, in Burgos

Every municipality in Burgos → · All of Spain →