Gernika-Lumo: no list would have a majority, EH BILDU largest
Gernika-Lumo (Bizkaia, 16,855 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 94%no list with a majority
- 8,492valid votes in 2023 (67% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
EH BILDU+1
7
councillors (2023: 6) · 38.3% of the vote (2023: 33.5%)
Majority 6%
GUZTIONTZAKO HERRIA±0
6
councillors (2023: 6) · 34.5% of the vote (2023: 30.9%)
Majority under 1%
EAJ-PNV−1
4
councillors (2023: 5) · 25.7% of the vote (2023: 29.4%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 94% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 33.5% → 38.3% 6 → 7 councillors
- GUZTIONTZAKO HERRIALocal lists 30.9% → 34.5% 6 → 6 councillors
- EAJ-PNVPNV 29.4% → 25.7% 5 → 4 councillors
- PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 3.0% → 0.5% 0 → 0 councillors
- ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-EZKER ANITZA/IU-ALIANZA VERDESumar, Podemos and allies 1.2% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors
- PPPP 0.9% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 8,492 valid votes including 86 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.