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Arenys de Mar: no list would have a majority, CM largest

Arenys de Mar (Barcelona, 16,155 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

CM−1
8 councillors (2023: 9) · 41.6% of the vote (2023: 43.0%) Majority 25%
ERC - AM+1
3 councillors (2023: 2) · 18.4% of the vote (2023: 13.4%) Majority 0%
CUP-AMUNT±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 13.6% of the vote (2023: 12.2%) Majority 0%
PSC-CP±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 10.6% of the vote (2023: 12.8%) Majority 0%
AEC - C±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.9% of the vote (2023: 9.1%) Majority 0%
PP±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.8% of the vote (2023: 7.4%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 75% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Arenys de Mar

Arenys de Mar is a municipality in the province of Barcelona with 16,155 inhabitants, the 62nd largest of its 311 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 CM came first with 43% of the vote and 9 seats, an absolute majority; ERC - AM was second with 2. 54.7% of the 12,088 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: CM would be largest on 8 of 17.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. CMJunts 43.0% → 41.6% 9 → 8 councillors
  2. ERC - AMERC 13.4% → 18.4% 2 → 3 councillors
  3. CUP-AMUNTCUP 12.2% → 13.6% 2 → 2 councillors
  4. PSC-CPPSOE 12.8% → 10.6% 2 → 2 councillors
  5. AEC - CSumar, Podemos and allies 9.1% → 6.9% 1 → 1 councillors
  6. PPPP 7.4% → 6.8% 1 → 1 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,611 valid votes including 137 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Arenys de Mar in size, in Barcelona

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