Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Arroyo de San Serván: PSOE would keep its majority

Arroyo de San Serván (Badajoz, 4,054 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE−1
8 councillors (2023: 9) · 72.9% of the vote (2023: 73.5%) Majority over 99%
PP+1
3 councillors (2023: 2) · 25.1% of the vote (2023: 24.5%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

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The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

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About Arroyo de San Serván

Arroyo de San Serván is a municipality in the province of Badajoz with 4,054 inhabitants, the 33rd largest of its 165 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PSOE came first with 73.5% of the vote and 9 seats, an absolute majority; PP was second with 2. 75.2% of the 3,224 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps PSOE on 8 seats, a majority, which it holds in 100% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 73.5% → 72.9% 9 → 8 councillors
  2. PPPP 24.5% → 25.1% 2 → 3 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,426 valid votes including 48 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Arroyo de San Serván in size, in Badajoz

Every municipality in Badajoz → · All of Spain →