Noreña: IPÑ would win a majority
Noreña (Asturias, 5,088 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 13councillors, 7 for a majority
- 50%IPÑ majority
- 2,830valid votes in 2023 (67% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
IPÑ+1
7
councillors (2023: 6) · 43.3% of the vote (2023: 41.0%)
Majority 50%
IU-MÁS PAÍS-IAS−1
2
councillors (2023: 3) · 18.2% of the vote (2023: 21.9%)
Majority 0%
PP±0
2
councillors (2023: 2) · 14.5% of the vote (2023: 15.2%)
Majority 0%
PSOE−1
1
councillors (2023: 2) · 10.2% of the vote (2023: 12.9%)
Majority 0%
VOX+1
1
councillors (2023: 0) · 8.2% of the vote (2023: 3.5%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 50% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- IPÑLocal lists 41.0% → 43.3% 6 → 7 councillors
- IU-MÁS PAÍS-IASSumar, Podemos and allies 21.9% → 18.2% 3 → 2 councillors
- PPPP 15.2% → 14.5% 2 → 2 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 12.9% → 10.2% 2 → 1 councillors
- VOXVox 3.5% → 8.2% 0 → 1 councillors
- C.A.NOREÑALocal lists 3.9% → 4.1% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,830 valid votes including 46 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.