Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Laviana: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Laviana (Asturias, 12,584 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE±0
8 councillors (2023: 8) · 41.9% of the vote (2023: 43.7%) Majority 33%
IU-MÁS PAÍS-IAS−1
3 councillors (2023: 4) · 18.5% of the vote (2023: 21.5%) Majority 0%
PP±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 15.6% of the vote (2023: 15.7%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 13.7% of the vote (2023: 7.3%) Majority 0%
FORO ASTURIAS±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.0% of the vote (2023: 5.4%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 67% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 43.7% → 41.9% 8 → 8 councillors
  2. IU-MÁS PAÍS-IASSumar, Podemos and allies 21.5% → 18.5% 4 → 3 councillors
  3. PPPP 15.7% → 15.6% 3 → 3 councillors
  4. VOXVox 7.3% → 13.7% 1 → 2 councillors
  5. FORO ASTURIASLocal lists 5.4% → 6.0% 1 → 1 councillors
  6. PODEMOSSumar, Podemos and allies 4.5% → 2.4% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,781 valid votes including 127 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Laviana in size, in Asturias

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