Valdegovía/Gaubea: EAJ-PNV would keep its majority
Valdegovía/Gaubea (Araba/Álava, 1,097 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 9councillors, 5 for a majority
- 66%EAJ-PNV majority
- 595valid votes in 2023 (65% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 31% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Valdegovía/Gaubea
Valdegovía/Gaubea is a municipality in the province of Araba/Álava with 1,097 inhabitants, the 20th largest of its 51 municipalities. Its council has 9 seats, and 5 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 EAJ-PNV came first with 50.9% of the vote and 5 seats, an absolute majority; EH BILDU was second with 3. 64.7% of the 920 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps EAJ-PNV on 5 seats, a majority, which it holds in 66% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- EAJ-PNVPNV 50.9% → 46.9% 5 → 5 councillors
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 26.9% → 32.5% 3 → 3 councillors
- PPPP 12.9% → 13.6% 1 → 1 councillors
- PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 5.7% → 3.5% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 595 valid votes including 21 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.