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Arboleas: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Arboleas (Almería, 4,532 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 40.6% of the vote (2023: 42.9%) Majority 9%
PP±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 40.0% of the vote (2023: 39.2%) Majority 8%
UCIN±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 19.0% of the vote (2023: 17.5%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 83% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Arboleas

Arboleas is a municipality in the province of Almería with 4,532 inhabitants, the 23rd largest of its 103 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PSOE came first with 42.9% of the vote and 5 seats; PP was second with 4. 79.1% of the 1,762 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PSOE would be largest on 5 of 11.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 42.9% → 40.6% 5 → 5 councillors
  2. PPPP 39.2% → 40.0% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. UCINLocal lists 17.5% → 19.0% 2 → 2 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,393 valid votes including 6 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Arboleas in size, in Almería

Every municipality in Almería → · All of Spain →