Germany Bundestag electionby 25 Mar 2029in 874 days CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens 97% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com Germany
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Germany · Votes per seat

A seat costs CDU/CSU 1.0 times as many votes as Linke

Germany elects its 630 seats by personalised proportional representation. On our projection, 47 seats go to a different party than a strictly proportional split of the same votes would give. FDP (4.0%) and BSW (3.2%) would win no seats at all.

Seats against the vote

  1. AfD27.6% of the vote 199 seats; 184 in proportion (+15) 0.92 × the average votes per seat
  2. CDU/CSU20.6% of the vote 148 seats; 137 in proportion (+11) 0.93 × the average votes per seat
  3. Greens14.9% of the vote 107 seats; 99 in proportion (+8) 0.93 × the average votes per seat
  4. SPD13.6% of the vote 98 seats; 91 in proportion (+7) 0.93 × the average votes per seat
  5. Linke10.6% of the vote 77 seats; 71 in proportion (+6) 0.92 × the average votes per seat
  6. FDP4.0% of the vote 0 seats; 27 in proportion (-27) no seats
  7. BSW3.2% of the vote 0 seats; 21 in proportion (-21) no seats

"In proportion": each party's share of the seats if they followed its share of our projected vote exactly. What if the polls are wrong? → · The same votes under other countries' rules →