The AfD's lead shrinks after the email leak, but it still leads every poll but one
INSA has the AfD 8 points ahead, down from 10.5 a week earlier, and Forsa has it 6 ahead. Our projection gives it 197 of the 630 seats.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
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Two polls published this week both have the AfD's lead narrowing. INSA, for Bild (30 October to 2 November), has the AfD on 28 per cent, down 1.5, and the CDU/CSU on 20, up 1. The gap is 8 points, from 10.5 a week earlier. Forsa (2 November) has the AfD on 26 and the Union on 20.
Both polls follow the publication, from 20 October, of about 421,000 internal AfD emails taken in a hack. The party has lost a little ground since, but it remains first in every recent poll except one. The exception is Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF (22 October), which had the Union ahead, 26 to 23.
The rest of the field barely moved. The Greens are on 15 to 17, the SPD on 13 to 14, the Linke on 10 to 11. The FDP is on 4 or 5 and the BSW on 3 to 3.5, at or below the 5 per cent threshold.
Our projection
Our average has the AfD on 27.4 per cent, 6.9 points ahead of the CDU/CSU. If the Bundestag were elected now, the AfD would win 197 of the 630 seats, the Union 148, the Greens 108, the SPD 99 and the Linke 77.
Merz's coalition
Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government is unpopular: in Forsa's latest poll 86 per cent were dissatisfied with his work and 12 per cent satisfied. On our projection his coalition, the Union and the SPD, would have 247 seats, 69 short of a majority. Without the AfD, only the Union, the SPD and the Greens together reach a majority; that happens in 97 per cent of our simulations.
The next federal election is due in 2029.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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