Germany's battleground: Hamburg-Mitte is the closest

1. Hamburg-MitteHH Greens by 0.09 pts over SPD gain from SPD
2. NeuwiedRP AfD by 0.09 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
3. CalwBW CDU/CSU by 0.10 pts over AfD hold
4. Steinburg – Dithmarschen SüdSH AfD by 0.11 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
5. Plön – NeumünsterSH CDU/CSU by 0.18 pts over AfD hold
6. Bremen IHB · would not be seated SPD by 0.20 pts over Greens hold
7. GöppingenBW AfD by 0.22 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
8. Augsburg-StadtBY AfD by 0.27 pts over Greens gain from CDU/CSU
9. WormsRP CDU/CSU by 0.27 pts over AfD hold
10. Celle – UelzenNI CDU/CSU by 0.34 pts over AfD hold
11. Salzgitter – WolfenbüttelNI AfD by 0.37 pts over SPD gain from SPD
12. Segeberg – Stormarn-MitteSH CDU/CSU by 0.42 pts over AfD hold
13. Neustadt – SpeyerRP CDU/CSU by 0.44 pts over AfD hold
14. SchwandorfBY CDU/CSU by 0.49 pts over AfD hold
15. MontabaurRP CDU/CSU by 0.50 pts over AfD hold
16. Düsseldorf IINW Greens by 0.57 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
17. Oberbergischer KreisNW CDU/CSU by 0.63 pts over AfD hold
18. Rhein-NeckarBW AfD by 0.65 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
19. Solingen – Remscheid – Wuppertal IINW AfD by 0.70 pts over SPD gain from CDU/CSU
20. Oberhausen – Wesel IIINW SPD by 0.73 pts over AfD hold
21. GießenHE AfD by 0.74 pts over SPD gain from CDU/CSU
22. LandshutBY AfD by 0.75 pts over CSU gain from CDU/CSU
23. OdenwaldHE CDU/CSU by 0.79 pts over AfD hold
24. Bruchsal – SchwetzingenBW AfD by 0.79 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
25. Lörrach – MüllheimBW · would not be seated CDU/CSU by 0.85 pts over AfD hold
26. Herzogtum Lauenburg – Stormarn-SüdSH CDU/CSU by 0.86 pts over AfD hold
27. München-OstBY · would not be seated CDU/CSU by 0.87 pts over Greens hold
28. Goslar – Northeim – Göttingen IINI SPD by 1.00 pts over AfD hold
29. Bottrop – Recklinghausen IIINW AfD by 1.0 pts over SPD gain from CDU/CSU
30. Cuxhaven – Stade IINI SPD by 1.1 pts over AfD gain from CDU/CSU
31. Hamm – Unna IINW SPD by 1.1 pts over AfD hold
32. Siegen-WittgensteinNW AfD by 1.1 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
33. BergstraßeHE CDU/CSU by 1.1 pts over AfD hold
34. OffenbachHE CDU/CSU by 1.2 pts over AfD hold
35. Bremen II – BremerhavenHB SPD by 1.2 pts over AfD hold
36. Köln INW Greens by 1.3 pts over SPD gain from SPD
37. Nürnberg-SüdBY · would not be seated CDU/CSU by 1.3 pts over AfD hold
38. Recklinghausen IINW AfD by 1.3 pts over SPD gain from CDU/CSU
39. St. WendelSL AfD by 1.4 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
40. Wetterau IHE CDU/CSU by 1.4 pts over AfD hold
41. MainzRP Greens by 1.4 pts over SPD gain from CDU/CSU
42. DeggendorfBY CDU/CSU by 1.5 pts over AfD hold
43. Backnang – Schwäbisch GmündBW AfD by 1.5 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
44. Göttingen INI · would not be seated SPD by 1.6 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
45. Wesel INW CDU/CSU by 1.6 pts over SPD hold
46. Rottal-InnBY AfD by 1.6 pts over FW gain from CDU/CSU
47. PinnebergSH · would not be seated CDU/CSU by 1.6 pts over SPD hold
48. Herford – Minden-Lübbecke IINW AfD by 1.7 pts over SPD gain from CDU/CSU
49. HarburgNI CDU/CSU by 1.7 pts over SPD hold
50. Berlin-Spandau – Charlottenburg NordBE AfD by 1.8 pts over SPD gain from SPD
51. KasselHE SPD by 1.8 pts over AfD hold
52. HofBY · would not be seated CDU/CSU by 1.8 pts over AfD hold
53. Nordfriesland – Dithmarschen NordSH · would not be seated CDU/CSU by 1.8 pts over AfD hold
54. Berlin-ReinickendorfBE AfD by 1.9 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
55. HanauHE AfD by 1.9 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
56. RastattBW CDU/CSU by 1.9 pts over AfD hold
57. Nienburg II – SchaumburgNI SPD by 2.0 pts over AfD hold
58. WiesbadenHE CDU/CSU by 2.0 pts over AfD hold
59. Stuttgart IIBW Greens by 2.0 pts over CDU gain from CDU/CSU
60. Hamburg-NordHH Greens by 2.1 pts over SPD gain from CDU/CSU

Nothing matches.

Gains among the closest

• AfD from CDU/CSU 18
• Greens from CDU/CSU 4
• Greens from SPD 2
• AfD from SPD 2
• SPD from CDU/CSU 2

Won but not seated: 16 constituencies

Under the 2023 law a party keeps only as many constituency seats as its second votes cover in that Land; its winners with the weakest first-vote shares go unseated, and the constituency has no member of its own. On our projection these winners would not take their seats:

• CDU/CSU 12
• SPD 4

• Lörrach – MüllheimBW · CDU/CSU by 0.85 pts
• BambergBY · CDU/CSU by 5.9 pts
• ErlangenBY · CDU/CSU by 6.4 pts
• FürthBY · CDU/CSU by 4.1 pts
• HofBY · CDU/CSU by 1.8 pts
• München-OstBY · CDU/CSU by 0.87 pts
• Nürnberg-SüdBY · CDU/CSU by 1.3 pts
• OberallgäuBY · CDU/CSU by 5.2 pts
• RegensburgBY · CDU/CSU by 5.6 pts
• WürzburgBY · CDU/CSU by 8.7 pts
• Bremen IHB · SPD by 0.20 pts
• Göttingen INI · SPD by 1.6 pts
• Lüchow-Dannenberg – LüneburgNI · SPD by 2.7 pts
• Stadt OsnabrückNI · SPD by 3.5 pts
• Nordfriesland – Dithmarschen NordSH · CDU/CSU by 1.8 pts
• PinnebergSH · CDU/CSU by 1.6 pts

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