Canada General election15 Oct 2029in 1,079 days Liberal majority over 99% No majority under 1% Calendar Track record Research
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Polls · Next federal election

Abacus Data, 21 October 2026

Abacus Data has Liberal ahead of Conservative by 16 points, 48% to 32%. Since its previous poll (13 October 2026): Liberal +2 (46 → 48), Conservative −2 (34 → 32), Bloc −1 (7 → 6).

Fieldwork16 October 2026 – 21 October 2026
Published25 October 2026
Sample1,500
Methodonline panel
Release release
In our averageYes: it is this pollster's latest

Abacus Data post: committed voters, read from the post text

Decided and leaning voters, as published. We rescale the parties to 100 before averaging.

Main

%
Mark CarneyLiberal 48
Pierre PoilievreConservative 32
Avi LewisNDP 9
Yves-François BlanchetBloc 6
Elizabeth MayGreen 3
Maxime BernierPPC 1
Others 1

Against the other polls

Against the median of the 4 other polls with fieldwork ending within a week of it: NDP 9% against 13.5%; Conservative 32% against 29.2%.

Abacus Data's previous poll, 13 October 2026 →

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