How well do you know the polls?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 42 for 4 November 2026.
-
1Which party has lost most support since Germany's last election (23 February 2025)?
CDU/CSU: 28.5% then, 20.5% in our average now (−8.0 points). See the page
-
2Which party won the most votes at Italy's 2022 election?
FdI with 26.0%, ahead of PD on 19.0%. See the page
-
3In Poland, whose poll average has moved most in the last week of polling?
PiS: up 0.8 points, now 22.5%. See the page
-
4To the nearest point, what share of the vote did M5S win at Italy's 2018 election?
32.7%. See the page
-
5In the Netherlands, what chance does our forecast give for “PVV largest”?
11%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
-
6How many seats does our forecast give PiS in the Sejm in Poland?
132 in our projection. See the page
-
7At Germany's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.2 points per party, over 13 final polls. See the page
-
8At the Netherlands' 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.4 points per party, over 3 final polls. See the page
-
9How many seats does our forecast give One Nation in the House of Representatives in Australia?
63 in our projection, 13 short of a majority. See the page
-
10At Australia's 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
Labor: 31.9% in the final polls, 34.6% on the day. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.