France Presidential election, round one18 Apr 2027in 167 days Le Pen wins 93% Philippe wins 6% Calendar Track record Research
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France · Votes per seat

A seat costs RN and allies 2.2 times as many votes as Left (NFP and other left)

France elects its 577 seats by two-round single-member seats. On our projection, 87 seats go to a different party than a strictly proportional split of the same votes would give.

Seats against the vote

  1. Left (NFP and other left)33.7% of the vote 282 seats; 195 in proportion (+87) 0.69 × the average votes per seat
  2. RN and allies32.8% of the vote 123 seats; 190 in proportion (-67) 1.55 × the average votes per seat
  3. Ensemble and centre17.0% of the vote 81 seats; 98 in proportion (-17) 1.22 × the average votes per seat
  4. LR and other right13.3% of the vote 75 seats; 77 in proportion (-2) 1.03 × the average votes per seat
  5. Others and regionalists2.7% of the vote 16 seats; 15 in proportion (+1) 0.97 × the average votes per seat

"In proportion": each party's share of the seats if they followed its share of our projected vote exactly. What if the polls are wrong? → · The same votes under other countries' rules →