France Presidential election, round one18 Apr 2027in 167 days Le Pen wins 93% Philippe wins 6% Calendar Track record Research
Closest

Sermaize-les-Bains: Alain Pauphilet's list won the town hall in 2026; Marine Le Pen would lead here in 2027

Sermaize-les-Bains (Marne, INSEE 51531) has 1,302 registered voters. Its council has 19 seats; the 2026 municipal election went to a second round on 22 March. The next municipal elections are in 2032; the presidential election is on 18 April 2027.

The municipal election, March 2026

Round two, 22 March · 848 voted, 835 valid votes

  1. NOUVEL ELAN POUR SERMAIZELed by Alain Pauphilet · No label (small commune) 45.6% · 381 · 14 seats
  2. TOUS ENSEMBLE POUR SERMAIZELed by Saïd Yacoubi · No label (small commune) 36.0% · 301 · 3 seats
  3. agir ensemble pour SermaizeLed by Rachel Cot · No label (small commune) 18.3% · 153 · 2 seats

Round one, 15 March · 848 voted, 822 valid votes

  1. NOUVEL ELAN POUR SERMAIZENo label (small commune) 43.1% · 354
  2. TOUS ENSEMBLE POUR SERMAIZENo label (small commune) 31.9% · 262
  3. agir ensemble pour SermaizeNo label (small commune) 25.1% · 206

Official results, Ministère de l'Intérieur. Lists are labelled with the ministry's political "nuance"; lists in small communes carry none. The list that comes first takes half the seats as a bonus, and the rest are shared in proportion among lists over 5%.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Every commune

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 34,778 communes with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last presidential election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Sermaize-les-Bains

Sermaize-les-Bains is a commune in Marne with 1,302 registered voters, the 36th largest of the département's 610 communes. At the municipal election of March 2026 65.1% of them voted, more than the 51.9% across Marne, and the list led by Alain Pauphilet won 14 of the council's 19 seats after a second round.

In the first round of the 2022 presidential election the commune voted National Rally 41.1%, Ensemble (Macron camp) 21.6%, France Unbowed 14.3%. National Rally did 18 points better here than across France.

Moved to today's national polls, our projection for the 2027 first round here has Marine Le Pen ahead on 53.4%, with Raphaël Glucksmann on 11.2%.

The 2027 presidential election here, round one

Our national forecast for round one, carried down to Sermaize-les-Bains from how it voted in 2022.

  1. Marine Le PenNational Rally 53.4% · France 34.2%
  2. Raphaël GlucksmannSocialists 11.2% · France 13.4%
  3. Édouard PhilippeEnsemble (Macron camp) 10.1% · France 14.3%
  4. Jean-Luc MélenchonFrance Unbowed 9.6% · France 16.8%
  5. Bruno RetailleauRepublicans 6.1% · France 7.6%
  6. Éric ZemmourReconquête 3.3% · France 3.8%
  7. Fabien RousselCommunist Party 2.1% · France 2.0%
  8. Nicolas Dupont-AignanSovereigntists 1.8% · France 2.1%
  9. Marine TondelierGreens 1.4% · France 2.9%
  10. Nathalie ArthaudFar left 0.9% · France 0.6%

In 2022, round one here: National Rally 41.1% · Ensemble (Macron camp) 21.6% · France Unbowed 14.3% · Reconquête 6.8% · Republicans 3.9%. Each political family moves by its national change since 2022 (half uniform, half proportional), scaled so that every commune adds up to our national forecast. The national forecast →

Communes of a similar size in Marne

Every commune in Marne → · All of France →