France Presidential election, round one18 Apr 2027in 167 days Le Pen wins 93% Philippe wins 6% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com France
EN FR
Closest
France · Every commune · Haute-Garonne

Toulouse: Jean-Luc Moudenc's list won the town hall in 2026; Jean-Luc Mélenchon would lead here in 2027

Toulouse (Haute-Garonne, INSEE 31555) has 281,775 registered voters. Its council has 69 seats; the 2026 municipal election went to a second round on 22 March. The next municipal elections are in 2032; the presidential election is on 18 April 2027.

The municipal election, March 2026

Round two, 22 March · 175,999 voted, 171,077 valid votes

  1. Avec Jean-Luc MOUDENC, Protégeons l'Avenir de ToulouseLed by Jean-Luc Moudenc · Miscellaneous right 53.9% · 92,152 · 53 seats
  2. Demain Toulouse La Gauche UnieLed by François Piquemal · Miscellaneous left 46.1% · 78,925 · 16 seats

Round one, 15 March · 158,977 voted, 157,021 valid votes

  1. Avec Jean-Luc MOUDENC, Protégeons l'Avenir de ToulouseMiscellaneous right 37.2% · 58,462
  2. Demain Toulouse à gauche et écologisteFrance Unbowed 27.6% · 43,274
  3. Vivre mieux La gauche unie, écologiste, citoyenne et solidaireUnion of the left 25.0% · 39,245
  4. Le bon sens toulousainRassemblement National 5.4% · 8,447
  5. Nouvel airMiscellaneous centre 1.7% · 2,648
  6. A LA RECONQUETE ! DE TOULOUSEReconquête 1.2% · 1,953
  7. UNE TRAVAILLEUSE AU CAPITOLEFar left 1.0% · 1,611
  8. LUTTE OUVRIÈRE - LE CAMP DES TRAVAILLEURSFar left 0.4% · 653
  9. NPA Révolutionnaires- Toulouse ouvriére et révolutionnaire.Far left 0.3% · 438
  10. Toulouse pour les jeunes, les travailleurs et les services publics, contre les budgets de guerreFar left 0.2% · 290

Official results, Ministère de l'Intérieur. Lists are labelled with the ministry's political "nuance"; lists in small communes carry none. The list that comes first takes half the seats as a bonus, and the rest are shared in proportion among lists over 5%.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Every commune

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 34,778 communes with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last presidential election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Toulouse

Toulouse is a commune in Haute-Garonne with 281,775 registered voters, the largest of the département's 586 communes. At the municipal election of March 2026 56.4% of them voted, fewer than the 58.7% across Haute-Garonne, and the list led by Jean-Luc Moudenc won 53 of the council's 69 seats after a second round.

In the first round of the 2022 presidential election the commune voted France Unbowed 36.9%, Ensemble (Macron camp) 26.4%, National Rally 9.5%. France Unbowed did 15 points better here than across France.

Moved to today's national polls, our projection for the 2027 first round here has Jean-Luc Mélenchon ahead on 30.3%, with Marine Le Pen on 18.8%.

The 2027 presidential election here, round one

Our national forecast for round one, carried down to Toulouse from how it voted in 2022.

  1. Jean-Luc MélenchonFrance Unbowed 30.3% · France 16.8%
  2. Marine Le PenNational Rally 18.8% · France 34.2%
  3. Raphaël GlucksmannSocialists 17.0% · France 13.4%
  4. Édouard PhilippeEnsemble (Macron camp) 14.3% · France 14.3%
  5. Bruno RetailleauRepublicans 6.9% · France 7.6%
  6. Marine TondelierGreens 5.3% · France 2.9%
  7. Éric ZemmourReconquête 3.5% · France 3.8%
  8. Fabien RousselCommunist Party 1.9% · France 2.0%
  9. Nicolas Dupont-AignanSovereigntists 1.4% · France 2.1%

In 2022, round one here: France Unbowed 36.9% · Ensemble (Macron camp) 26.4% · National Rally 9.5% · Greens 7.3% · Reconquête 6.4%. Each political family moves by its national change since 2022 (half uniform, half proportional), scaled so that every commune adds up to our national forecast. The national forecast →

Communes of a similar size in Haute-Garonne

Every commune in Haute-Garonne → · All of France →