France Presidential election, round one18 Apr 2027in 167 days Le Pen wins 93% Philippe wins 6% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com France
EN FR
Closest
France · Every commune · Haute-Garonne

Montgeard: VIVRE ENSEMBLE 2026 won the town hall in 2026; Raphaël Glucksmann would lead here in 2027

Montgeard (Haute-Garonne, INSEE 31380) has 468 registered voters. Its council has 15 seats; the 2026 municipal election was settled in the first round on 15 March. The next municipal elections are in 2032; the presidential election is on 18 April 2027.

The municipal election, March 2026

Round one, 15 March · 365 voted, 351 valid votes

  1. VIVRE ENSEMBLE 2026No label (small commune) 67.5% · 237 · 13 seats
  2. Ensemble pour MONTGEARDNo label (small commune) 32.5% · 114 · 2 seats

Official results, Ministère de l'Intérieur. Lists are labelled with the ministry's political "nuance"; lists in small communes carry none. The list that comes first takes half the seats as a bonus, and the rest are shared in proportion among lists over 5%.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Every commune

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 34,778 communes with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last presidential election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Montgeard

Montgeard is a commune in Haute-Garonne with 468 registered voters, the 231st largest of the département's 586 communes. At the municipal election of March 2026 78% of them voted, more than the 58.7% across Haute-Garonne, and VIVRE ENSEMBLE 2026 won 13 of the council's 15 seats in the first round.

In the first round of the 2022 presidential election the commune voted Ensemble (Macron camp) 24.6%, France Unbowed 22.8%, National Rally 15.6%. National Rally did 8 points worse here than across France.

Moved to today's national polls, our projection for the 2027 first round here has Raphaël Glucksmann ahead on 25.5%, with Marine Le Pen on 24.8%.

The 2027 presidential election here, round one

Our national forecast for round one, carried down to Montgeard from how it voted in 2022.

  1. Raphaël GlucksmannSocialists 25.5% · France 13.4%
  2. Marine Le PenNational Rally 24.8% · France 34.2%
  3. Jean-Luc MélenchonFrance Unbowed 16.3% · France 16.8%
  4. Édouard PhilippeEnsemble (Macron camp) 12.2% · France 14.3%
  5. Bruno RetailleauRepublicans 6.1% · France 7.6%
  6. Marine TondelierGreens 4.6% · France 2.9%
  7. Éric ZemmourReconquête 4.3% · France 3.8%
  8. Fabien RousselCommunist Party 4.0% · France 2.0%
  9. Nicolas Dupont-AignanSovereigntists 1.6% · France 2.1%
  10. Nathalie ArthaudFar left 0.7% · France 0.6%

In 2022, round one here: Ensemble (Macron camp) 24.6% · France Unbowed 22.8% · National Rally 15.6% · Reconquête 8.1% · Greens 6.9%. Each political family moves by its national change since 2022 (half uniform, half proportional), scaled so that every commune adds up to our national forecast. The national forecast →

Communes of a similar size in Haute-Garonne

Every commune in Haute-Garonne → · All of France →