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Move the polls → Every tool →Where the polls stood 27 days before each of the last three general elections, and what happened next. The biggest move from this point: PSOE in 2023, +5.3 points between the polls and the result.
The average of the polls around the same point in each cycle (each pollster counted once), the line to polling day, and the result. The dashed line is this point.
PP led by 5.5. PP won the vote by 1.4 on 23 July.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.9 | 33.1 | +1.2 |
| PSOE | 26.4 | 31.7 | +5.3 |
| Vox | 13.9 | 12.4 | −1.5 |
| Sumar | 12.7 | 12.3 | −0.4 |
PSOE led by 6.7. PSOE won the vote by 7.2 on 10 November.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 27.2 | 28.0 | +0.8 |
| PP | 20.5 | 20.8 | +0.3 |
| Sumar | 12.0 | 15.3 | +3.3 |
| Vox | 10.4 | 15.1 | +4.7 |
| Ciudadanos | 9.8 | 6.8 | −3.0 |
| ERC | – | 3.6 |
PSOE led by 4.9. PSOE won the vote by 12.0 on 28 April.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 26.5 | 28.7 | +2.2 |
| PP | 21.6 | 16.7 | −4.9 |
| Ciudadanos | 16.8 | 15.9 | −0.9 |
| Sumar | 14.1 | 15.0 | +0.9 |
| Vox | 9.7 | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| ERC | – | 3.9 |
Today's average, then each party moved by as much as it did between this point and polling day in each past cycle. Where a party did not stand, or polled under another name we cannot match, the cell is blank.
| Party | Today | As in 2023 | As in November 2019 | As in April 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.0 | 32.2 | 31.3 | 26.1 |
| PSOE | 27.1 | 32.4 | 27.9 | 29.3 |
| Vox | 19.0 | 17.5 | 23.7 | 19.6 |
| Sumar | 6.4 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.3 |
| Podemos | 2.6 | |||
| ERC | 2.3 |
PSOE would overtake in two of the three. A party's move in one cycle belongs to that campaign; this shows the size of change that has happened from here, not a forecast. Our forecast →
For each past election we take every national voting-intention poll published in the fortnight either side of the same point (three weeks, or five where polls were sparse), average each pollster's polls, then average the pollsters. Sumar's line is Unidas Podemos in 2019.
Polls: Opinion polling for the April 2019 Spanish general election, Opinion polling for the November 2019 Spanish general election, Opinion polling for the 2023 Spanish general election, Wikipedia, under CC BY-SA 4.0. Results: the national electoral authorities. Today: our poll average, updated with every poll.
The latest polls → · How accurate the pollsters have been → · What if the polls are wrong? →
