Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Quintanar de la Orden: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Quintanar de la Orden (Toledo, 11,069 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE±0
7 councillors (2023: 7) · 36.2% of the vote (2023: 40.8%) Majority 2%
PP−1
6 councillors (2023: 7) · 36.1% of the vote (2023: 37.6%) Majority 2%
VOX+1
4 councillors (2023: 3) · 24.8% of the vote (2023: 16.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 96% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 40.8% → 36.2% 7 → 7 councillors
  2. PPPP 37.6% → 36.1% 7 → 6 councillors
  3. VOXVox 16.6% → 24.8% 3 → 4 councillors
  4. UNIDAS - IU - PODEMOSSumar, Podemos and allies 3.5% → 1.4% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 5,758 valid votes including 87 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Quintanar de la Orden in size, in Toledo

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