Ginestar: CM would keep its majority
Ginestar (Tarragona, 790 inhabitants) elects 7 councillors on 23 May 2027; 4 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 7councillors, 4 for a majority
- 94%CM majority
- 470valid votes in 2023 (83% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (4 of 7). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Ginestar
Ginestar is a municipality in the province of Tarragona with 790 inhabitants, the 96th largest of its 184 municipalities. Its council has 7 seats, and 4 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 CM came first with 56.2% of the vote and 5 seats, an absolute majority; PLA/G was second with 2. 83.2% of the 565 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps CM on 4 seats, a majority, which it holds in 94% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- CMJunts 56.2% → 54.7% 5 → 4 councillors
- PLA/GLocal lists 33.4% → 37.2% 2 → 3 councillors
- PSC-CPPSOE 7.2% → 4.9% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 470 valid votes including 15 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.