España Próximas elecciones29 nov 2026en 27 días PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendario Historial Investigación

Arona: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Arona (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 82,982 inhabitants) elects 25 councillors on 23 May 2027; 13 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE±0
8 councillors (2023: 8) · 26.5% of the vote (2023: 29.3%) Majority 0%
+PORARONA±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 16.2% of the vote (2023: 15.3%) Majority 0%
PP−1
4 councillors (2023: 5) · 16.2% of the vote (2023: 16.8%) Majority 0%
VOX+2
4 councillors (2023: 2) · 15.1% of the vote (2023: 8.6%) Majority 0%
CCA−1
4 councillors (2023: 5) · 13.7% of the vote (2023: 16.4%) Majority 0%
NC-FAC±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.5% of the vote (2023: 5.2%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (13 of 25). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 29.3% → 26.5% 8 → 8 councillors
  2. +PORARONALocal lists 15.3% → 16.2% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. PPPP 16.8% → 16.2% 5 → 4 councillors
  4. VOXVox 8.6% → 15.1% 2 → 4 councillors
  5. CCACoalición Canaria 16.4% → 13.7% 5 → 4 councillors
  6. NC-FACLocal lists 5.2% → 5.5% 1 → 1 councillors
  7. DVCLocal lists 2.5% → 2.6% 0 → 0 councillors
  8. FCUDLocal lists 1.8% → 1.9% 0 → 0 councillors
  9. MDPLocal lists 0.7% → 0.7% 0 → 0 councillors
  10. USPSumar, Podemos and allies 2.1% → 0.1% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 20,776 valid votes including 304 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Arona in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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