Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Cuevas Bajas: PSOE-A would keep its majority

Cuevas Bajas (Málaga, 1,353 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE-A±0
6 councillors (2023: 6) · 62.1% of the vote (2023: 60.0%) Majority over 99%
CON ANDALUCÍA±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 30.3% of the vote (2023: 32.0%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOE-APSOE 60.0% → 62.1% 6 → 6 councillors
  2. CON ANDALUCÍASumar, Podemos and allies 32.0% → 30.3% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. PPPP 5.9% → 5.4% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 852 valid votes including 18 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Cuevas Bajas in size, in Málaga

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